{"id":25162,"date":"2020-03-11T09:00:48","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T09:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/synerjies.com\/?p=25162"},"modified":"2020-03-11T09:00:52","modified_gmt":"2020-03-11T09:00:52","slug":"the-iranian-elections-and-its-implications-for-the-on-going-us-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/synerjies.com\/2020\/03\/11\/the-iranian-elections-and-its-implications-for-the-on-going-us-iran-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iranian elections and its implications for the on-going US-Iran conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In this year\u2019s Iranian parliamentary elections, that took place in February and resulted in the victory of the hard-liners, the voter turnout was 42.6% (the lowest since the 1979 revolution with the rate as little as about 25% in the capital). This record low rate was a normal prognosis of the current political setting in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, there is a big chunk of dispirited voters among the electorate with calls for a boycott after the Guardian Council, which determines which candidate qualify for the elections, disqualified thousands of reformist contenders including 90 members of the then current parliament. This public anger is as well a result of the widespread repression of human rights and intolerance of dissent the regime exhibited during the November protests triggered by the hard economic situation and the Iranian responsibility for the death of Iranians on board of the Ukrainian plane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the coronavirus was outbreaking in Iran during the elections time, and there were international media speculations about that, while the Iranian regime denied anything of the sort at that time to encourage people to go to the ballots. Remarkably, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said “this negative propaganda about the virus began a couple of months ago and grew larger ahead of the election” arguing that the international media does not miss the opportunity for dissuading Iranian voters from going to the ballots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current hard-liners\u2019 victory will no doubt pave the road or their victory in the presidential elections of 2021 particularly with the blatant support the supreme leader is giving them. It is no secret that the current position of Conservatives in the Iranian political landscape cannot be more contrasting to their position in the 2016 when the parliamentary elections resulted in the victory of Reformists with a majority of the seats after securing the presidency as well in 2013 elections that brought Rouhani to power. They were alienated and with this election they are dominating. During the reformist era led by Rouhani, the Conservatives were striving to obstruct Rouhani\u2019s attempt to reach a nuclear deal with world powers and particularly the US. However, despite their attempts and with the help of Obama\u2019s diplomacy, Rouhani was able to reach the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the US, UK, Germany, France, Russia and China. With that milestone, the Iranian regime generally and the reformist cohort inside the regime particularly, breathed fresh air as this move did not only improve their domestic standing among the Iranians with the sanctions lifted, but also eased the international isolation that characterized the Iranian regime for a long time. However, this transpired into something very different following the election of Donald Trump as president in 2016. This is because the Trump administration viewed the JCPOA as appeasement and in 2018 delivered a death blow to the reformist current and much of Rouhani\u2019s influence by withdrawing from the agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pursuing his maximum pressure approach, Trump imposed sanctions increasingly on Iran hoping to force the later to re-negotiate the agreement, while Iran refused to sit on the negotiation table before the sanctions are lifted. This dynamic pretty much characterized the conflict with brinkmanship; the strategy to push things to the brink of a war but stopping short of it. Things took a dramatic turn when the US targeted Iran\u2019s most prominent commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone attack in Baghdad and Iran retaliated by launching missile attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq and many speculated a potential war. But again, it was brinkmanship, and the situation was contained very short of a war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime and with the advent of the hard-liners there many speculations about a change of game in Iran\u2019s politics vis-\u00e0-vis the US with a field limited to competition among the various groups inside the hard-liners camp, with the Reformists fully marginalized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will be pursuing a d\u00e9tente for the following reasons:<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n