Last month, the special US envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffery Feltman commenced on an African Tour that includes Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The tour comes as an effort by the Biden Administration to address the complex crises in the Horn of Africa and on top of the list comes The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue. The tour commenced as Mr. Feltman arrived in Egypt to hold talks with the Egyptian officials as the tension has been escalating between both Egypt and Sudan on one hand and Ethiopia on the other over the past month. The tension roots from the inability to reach a legally binding agreement overfilling and operation of the dam between the downstream Countries, Egypt and Sudan, and the upstream country, Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government previously announced that the Second filling of the GERD reservoir will start in July this year. The first filling of the dam reservoir took place in July 2020 after a unilateral unannounced decision from Ethiopia. The dam is currently withholding 4.9 billion cubic meters of water and is expected to increase to a total of 18 billion cubic meters after the second filling.
To fully understand the current situation, we have to look back on how did we reach it in the first place. The Egyptian-Ethiopian relations date back to ancient Egypt as there were many religious, political, and cultural relations between the two countries and some of these relations continued over different times. Both countries share one of the oldest diplomatic relations between them that date back to the 1930s. For many years, The Church of Alexandria in Egypt and the Ethiopian church were an example of the strong ties between the two nations as the Ethiopian church derived its orthodox faith and culture from the Egyptian church since its construction in the 4th century till its independence in 1958.
Nevertheless, the Nile River has always been at the core of the relations between the countries. The Nile River is the longest river in the world which starts just south of the equator and runs for more than 6,000 Kms through 11 countries till it reaches the Mediterranean Sea in Egypt. The Nile is formed by three principal streams; the Blue Nile and the Atbara that flow from the highlands of Ethiopia, and the White Nile which starts at Lake Victoria in Tanzania and flows north until it reaches Sudan, where it converges with the Blue Nile. Egypt and Sudan’s main inflows come from the Blue Nile and throughout the years, there have been many efforts to coordinate the Nile water usage and distribution of portions between the three countries. There were mainly three main treaties:
- The 1902 Treaty between Great Britain and Ethiopia: At the time, Egypt was a protectorate of the British Empire and Ethiopia was a sovereign country under the rule of Emperor Menilik II. The treaty was primarily signed to establish the borders between Ethiopia and Sudan and the Nile water usage was only mentioned in one of the articles which stated that Ethiopia engages itself towards not to construct or allow the construction of any work on the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat which might arrest the flow of their waters.
- The 1929 treaty between Egypt and Grand Britain (representing its colonies in the Nile Basin): The agreement covered many issues related to the Nile River mainly, water allocation. The treaty states that Egypt has an annual allocation of 48 billion cubic meters and Sudan has an allocation of 4 billion cubic meters of an estimated annual yield of 84 billion cubic meters. Also, the agreement gave Egypt the right as a downstream country to reject any plans that could interfere with its flow of water.
- The 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan: Which increased the water allocations to both countries as the High dam plan helped Egypt in decreasing annual loss. Egypt increased its share to reach 55 billion cubic meters and Sudan’s to 18.5 billion cubic meters and in the case of increased water yield, it would be divided equally between the two countries.
For different reasons and interpretations, the Ethiopian Government doesn’t acknowledge the 1902 treaty and commenced with establishing the dam which will arrest the flow of water however, it acknowledges the same treaty as the reference for today’s borders with Sudan and was used by Ethiopia and Eritrea to delineate their boundaries in the year 2000 under the auspices of the United Nations.
The usage of the Nile River water has always been an issue of discussion between the countries, in 1979, the President of Egypt at the time Anwar El-Sadat declared a project which aims at using the Nile water to irrigate 35 thousand feddans in Sinai which was perceived by Ethiopia as an abuse of the Nile water and the claim was supported by the Organization of African Unity. Over the years, as the population of the Nile basin countries increased, they developed the capacity to harvest more water from the Nile which started the disagreements on who should get how much water. Under the former president Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian-Ethiopian relations witnessed a breakthrough as cooperation and understanding were highly appreciated in different fields and the Egyptian diplomacy exerted intensive efforts to end the Eritrean-Ethiopian issue. All until the year 1995, when former President Hosni Mubarak was targeted by a failed assassination attempt in Addis Ababa which consequently led to a severe deterioration in the relations between the two countries.
In 2010, 4 Nile Basin countries signed the Entebbe Agreement (Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania) to replace the previous agreements that awarded Egypt and Sudan their shares of water from the Nile. Egypt and Sudan as downstream countries reused to sign this agreement and Egypt froze its membership in the Nile Basin Initiative in 2010 because it objected to this agreement. In 2011, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) construction was initiated after an announcement was made by the Ethiopian Government. The GERD is a mega Dam with the capacity to withhold 70 billion m3 of water behind it with the main target of generating electricity and providing it to more than 60% of the population and turning Ethiopia into an electricity hub that can export to other countries. GERD was initially an idea presented by the US Bureau of Reclamation in 1964 which proposed a set of projects on the Blue Nile to maximize the usage of the Nile water however, Egypt had exercised strong diplomatic efforts to prevent the construction of dams as per the 1929 and 1959 agreements.
Since 2014, The Egyptian Government has prioritized this issue and countless rounds of negotiations have been held between the three countries to explore how to mitigate the repercussions of GERD on the downstream countries. Egypt has a very clear stance which strongly supports any development initiative and encourages the prosperity of all the Nile basin countries as long as Egypt and Sudan’s water allocations are not affected as per the 1959 agreement. Egypt legally supports its claim by referring to the “Geneva Convention relating to the Development of Hydraulic Power affecting more than one State, 1923” that puts an obligation on countries that want to capitalize on hydraulic projects that affect downstream counties not to implement the planned projects without the consent of the affected state. As well as several other principles present in the International River Law that have been used to settle other disputes between basin countries such as the prior notice principle.
In 2015, a Declaration of Principles was signed between the three countries in an effort to ease the talks and pave the way for a tripartite agreement based on the principles mentioned in the declaration. The declaration consists of 10 main principles, principle 3 (Not causing significant harm) and principle 4 (Impartial and Suitable use of water) stipulate that the three countries will take all necessary measures to avoid causing significant harm while using the Blue Nile and the Nile River and the importance of taking in consideration the different social and geographical implications of any action on the river. This declaration is now the only document that coordinates how the talks around the GERD should proceed and what the talks should reach.
Today, after years of negotiations, meetings, expert committees’ recommendations and involving various international mediators such as the United States of America invited the parties for a round of negotiations in 2019 along with the World Bank and another round of negotiations under the auspices of the African Union in 2020 under the presidency of South Africa and another round in 2021 under the auspices of the new chair of the African Union, The Democratic Republic of Kongo, an agreement is yet to be reached due to the stubbornness of the Ethiopian government and the refusal of all the solutions submitted by Egypt and Sudan and almost every round of negotiations ending with Ethiopia’s withdrawal. Principle 10 (Peaceful settlement of Conflicts) in the declaration states that if the parties do not succeed in resolving conflicts through consultation and negotiations, they can request conciliation or referring the matter to the Prime Ministers and Presidents of the three states. In April this year, The Sudanese Prime Minister invited the Egyptian and Ethiopian Prime ministers for a meeting as all negotiation efforts have failed especially after the last round in Kinshasa, however, the Ethiopian Prime Minister refused the invitation stating that the diplomatic efforts achieved partial success by agreeing on the Declaration of Principles in 2015.
Water Poverty is a threat that is currently facing Egypt as Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli stated that Egypt’s average water per capita is below 600 cubic meters per year which puts Egypt under the water poverty levels. It’s noteworthy that Ethiopia’s water per capita is estimated at around 1,500 cubic meters as Ethiopia has 12 river basins that supply it with 125 billion cubic meters of water on an annual basis. Egypt’s concerns about GERD which have been the key points for negotiations can be summarized in the following points:
- Reaching a legally binding agreement to organize mainly the filling and the operation of the dam. Egypt wants to link the filling of the dam with the annual yield of the river and fill the dam in a range from 9 to 12 years while Ethiopia wants to fill the dam within 5 to 7 years without accounting for the drought years.
- Transparent data sharing and continuous coordination, as in summer 2020, the Ethiopian government didn’t announce the commencing of the first filling. Sudan suffered severe floods as there was no cooperation with the Sudanese Government to calculate for the decreasing water levels reaching Sudan during the filling period or the increase in water flow after the filling was complete.
- Technical concerns over the dam that were not counted for including the number of hatches in the dam itself which will be the only window for water flowing to downstream countries until the entire project is complete, as well as the safety of the dam itself and its operation.
- The purpose of GERD as stated by the Ethiopian government was to generate electricity of around 6,000 Megawatts which can be reached with a flow of 15 billion cubic meters of water and doesn’t require building a mega reservoir to withhold 70 billion cubic meters of water. Also, there are many other alternatives to produce more electricity at a lesser cost.
And while Egypt has never spared efforts in reaching peaceful resolutions to conflicts throughout history, it has also never taken options off the table when the livelihood of its people is at stake. The GERD remains a pressing issue that is threatening the stability of the entire Middle East and its peaceful resolution should be a top priority to the international community. It remains to be seen how long Ethiopia could maintain its rogue and loose cannon foreign policy that effectively ends up harming and slowing down its development efforts. For in the past, the world has learned that partnerships and cooperation are the keys to success. Building bridges, not walls is a lesson that Ethiopia still needs to learn if it wants to further its development agenda as it claims.
