Amidst the ongoing coronavirus pandemic taking over the world and paralyzing most of world diplomacy or at least making it virtual or minimal, The US made a major diplomatic move. It offered to lift crippling sanctions against Venezuela if the incumbent left-wing president Nicolas Maduroagreed to step down from power while a transitional council would govern until fresh elections.According to that blueprint, both Maduro and Guaido don’t sit on the council. What’s remarkable about this American move isn’t only it’s timing but also, it’s non Guaidó-centric approach. The long-standing American policy towards Venezuela was one of “Maduro out, Guaidó in”.
For that, the US built international momentum and imposed rounds of sweeping sanctions against Venezuela. However, Maduro has so far endured and resisted these attempts backed by Venezuela’s military as well as Russia, China and Cuba. Worth noting is what while he was enduring Venezuela wasn’t. The country’s Inflation hit 800,000% last year and 4.8 million people have fled it. It’s fair to say that with that situation already in place the coronavirus is hard hitting the country particularly since the oil prices is dropping to historic levels and the oil is the main revenue source for Venezuela. Added to that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) refusal of a $5bn (£4bn) loan request pointingto the fact that Maduro’s legitimacy has not been recognised by the international community. Maybe that extra economic pressure is what motivates that American move and made the administration come firmware with that potential exit from the political impasse.
The one-million-dollar question then is whether Maduro concede or maintain the defiant position. Well, that depends on the length either China or Russia will be willing to go to for the sake of having Maduro in power. At the moment, each if the two seem to be reeling from the pressure the pandemic is putting or had already put in the case of China in their economies. In the case of Russia there is also the historic drop of oil prices that’s giving it other things to worry about that are different from its traditional Cold War playbook it reads through in its game with the US over Venezuela. Putting the external factor side, bets must be on military defections. It’s doubtful that Maduro spends one extra day in power after even a mediocre coup since things are already wildly chaotic in the country. On the US front, things are in fact escalating and getting into another novel battlefield. It charged Maduro and other senior officials with “narco-terrorism” claiming that he flooded the US with cocaine to undermine the health of Americans. In fact, a $15m (£12.5m) reward is being offered by the US for information leading to Maduro’s arrest.
